Hi Sophia!
The war in Ukraine and new lockdowns in China have significantly deteriorated the balance of risks for companies. In the very short term, companies are showing three signs of resilience that could help prevent a massive surge in insolvencies. However, pockets of fragilities and uncertainty over how long the current shocks could last have already sparked the return of temporary support measure in some countries.
Overall, after two years of declines, we expect global business insolvencies to rebound by +10% in 2022 and +14% in 2023.